Speed Post News Network
New Delhi : The Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal that is 96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northwest India (92-108%) and South Peninsula (93-107%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over North east India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%), according to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which comprises most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country, is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA). Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially. Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season.
The latest global model forecasts indicate the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon season.