BJP’s 6th win in Gujarat is like CPM’s victories in West Bengal

Sachchidanand Jha

Patna : The BJP’s resounding victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh has come as a shattering blow to the Congress even as it has increased its seat tally in Gujarat to 8o in the 182 member Gujarat Assembly, an increase of 19 seats over the 2012 Assembly polls. It was a high stake polls in Gujarat for both the BJP and Congress in PM Narendra Modi’s home state, where he ruled for 12 years.

The BJP won the Gujarat polls winning 99 seats despite the anti-incumbency factor though Congress had forged alliance with three caste leaders ( Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani) to wrest Gujarat from it. Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani and Deputy CM Nitin Paten have won from their respective seats. The BJP also retained the Maninagar seat which Modi had won thrice. The BJP has been in power in Gujarat since 1995.

Not surprisingly, PM Modi described the results of Gujarat Assembly polls as extraordinary saying several forces were at work to defeat the BJP in the polls. He also said that some people tried to bring back caste politics in Gujarat Assembly polls which the BJP government had wiped out by its development work. The PM said he was double happy over Gujarat win. The BJP had won 115 seats in 2012 Gujarat polls while Congress had won 61.  The BJP’s sixth consecutive victory in Gujarat Assembly polls is on the line of CPM’s successive victories in West Bengal Assembly polls spanning 34 years ( 1977-2011).

The BJP started 2017 by recording massive victories in Uttar Pradesh and Uttrakhand and also forming governments in Goa and Manipur and capped the year by retaining power in Gujarat and wresting power from Congress in Himachal Pradesh. In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won 44 out of the 68 seats but ironically its chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar  Dhumal lost in Sujanpur in the polls. The Congress could win only 21 seats in Himachal though CM Birbhadra Singh and his son won the polls.

But, the Congress party particulay its new President Rahul Gandhi gave a great fight to the BJP in Gujarat by launching an aggressive campaign. Rahul even visited 27 temples and the Congress described him a ‘Janeudhari Brahmin’. From winning only seven seats out of 403 in UP Assembly polls early this year to 80 seats in Gujarat Assembly polls is indeed a big achievement.

But, Rahul must analyse why the Gujaratis particularly traders in Surat still voted for the BJP despite the GST and demonetisation. Rahul always describes GST as ‘ Gabbar Singh Tax’. The BJP’s victory in Gujarat suggests that though a section of electorates had reservation about Modi government’s certain policy decisions, they want the development work to continue in the state. Rahul will also have to keep under check Congress’ caste leaders. The BJP has won 13 of the 25 Patidar dominated seats in Gujarat, a blow to Patidar leader Hardik Patel. May be inadvertently, but Rahul had had also given a soft Hindutva tone to Congress campaign in Gujarat which would have definitely upset the minority.

As far PM Narendra Modi vs Congress President Rahul Gandhi match goes, the former has won hands down as it was Modi brand, Modi Magic which won the game for the BJP in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. BJP President Amit Shah’s booth management was also an important factor which worked in the favour of the party.

The reduced victory margin in Gujarat is also a wake up for the BJP before the Karnataka Assembly polls next year. It appears, the BJP had initially taken its victory in Gujarat polls for granted as it is Modi’s home state. It realised the extent of Congress’s challenge when Rahul forged alliance with Patidar leader Hardik Patel, OBC leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani. Congress leader Mani Shankay Aiyar’s ‘Neech Aadmi’ comment against Modi came handy to the BJP to attack Congress. Modi, after the BJP’s 2-0 win in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls, said on December 18, 2017, that the country is ready for more reforms.