Patna : We have all heard this little joke in one or the other variant :
“A little boy came back from school and ran excitedly to his father.
— Daddy, Daddy, I became Runner up in the Hundred Meter Sprint in my school today.
Daddy, naturally, got excited. He picked up his little son, hugged him, kissed him on his cheek. Then, putting him down, he asked his son :
— Great, my little angel! Superb performance. I am so proud of you. How many students participated in that Hundred Meter Sprint ?
And the little angel replied :
— There were two of us, Daddy!”
Most of us have heard different variants of this little joke. However, whenever we listened to its different versions, we knew that this was a joke.
These days similar jokes are being circulated and repeated in different variants. These jokes are about the possible, and sometimes imminent, impact of COVID-19 pandemic on India.
First variant of this joke is :
— “New Zealand has successfully contained COVID-19 cases, while India is unable to do so. New Zealand had been able to contain total COVID-19 positive cases at 1200 and the number of COVID-19 related deaths below 25. What is India doing ?”
Second variant of this joke is :
— “Alarm Bells start ringing ! Total confirmed COVID-19 positive cases in India jump above the 3 lakh mark.”
Third variant of this joke is :
— “Corona situation alarming in India! India jumps to fourth place in the world as far as number of confirmed COVID-19 infections is concerned. Total number of Corona positive confirmed cases goes beyond 300100 in India.”
Fourth variant of this joke is :
— “Corona situation deteriorates further in India! Total number of COVID-19 related deaths crosses the 8800 mark. If immediate steps are not taken, death toll may run into lakhs in the near future.”
Fifth variant of this joke is :
— “Government is suppressing Corona related data. There is an attempt at massive under-reporting of COVID-19 positive cases and the number of deaths due to Corona infection. Nearly three lakh Corona positive cases have been admitted by the government. The number of infected patients is doubling every 15-16 days. At this rate the number of infected patients will reach around 50 lakh by the middle of August 2020.”
Sixth variant of this joke is :
— “There is massive concealment of truth as far as numbers of Corona positive infected patients and Corona related deaths in India is concerned. Government is manipulating data.”
These are only some of the variants of the analysis done by ‘Experts’ on COVID-19 in India. These statistics are being used by them in order to decisively prove that terrible days are ahead for India because the spread of Corona infection has gone absolutely out of control in India.
Such alarming and gloomy scenario is being presented by our indigenous ‘Experts’, ably supported by some foreign ‘Experts’. Then instead of being terrified by the analysis and predictions of these experts, why am I calling these “variants of a joke” ?
Let me explain :
Ø The experts do not know about the exact origin, cure or prevention of COVID-19. In the absence of any known vaccine or medicine, almost everybody is trying to become an ‘expert’ on prevention or transmission of the deadly virus.
Ø The non-State actors are more vigorously pursuing the game of forecasting. It is a win-win situation for them. If their predictions come true, they can always turn around and say – “Hey, look, did I not tell you so much before the others did?” If their predictions do not come true, nobody is going to hold them accountable. They know that it is only the State or Elected Governments which can be held accountable.
Ø In order to make the game of professional forecasting look impactful, our professional forecaster does not mind comparing even New Zealand with India. However, he /she conveniently forgets to tell us that the population of New Zealand is all of five million whereas the population of India is around 1.35 billion – which means that the Indian population is only about 270 times that of New Zealand. In other words, one India contains about 270 New Zealands as far as population is concerned.
Moreover, that in India, each of the Urban Agglomeration of Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Pune has a population which is greater than that of New Zealand.
Ø Similarly, our ‘Professional Experts’ advise us to be terrified because India has now more than three lakh COVID-19 infected patients and that this number of infected patients is largest in the world after USA, Brazil and Russia. We are also told that as far as the number of infected patients is concerned, India has even surpassed the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain.
What the ‘Professional Experts’ don’t tell us is that even the combined total populations of the USA (329,227,746 as of January 28, 2020), Brazil (212,488,104 as of June 14, 2020), Russia (145,931,723 as of June 14, 2020), Germany (81,476,829 as of June 14, 2020), UK (67,869,522 as of June 14, 2020), France (65,850,866 as of June 14, 2020), Italy (60,025,002 as of June 14, 2020) and Spain (45,671,831 as of June 14, 2020) – a total of 1,008,541,623 – are about 35 percent less than the total population of India alone (1,379,344,820 as of June 14, 2020).
Ø We must compare only the comparable; otherwise data may prove to be acutely misleading.
Ø If at all COVID-19 related data with respect to India is to be compared with other nations of the world, the number of COVID-19 infected persons per million population or the number of COVID-19 related deaths per million population can be the alternative.
Ø Compared against these parameters, India is absolutely in the safe zone. The number of total infected persons per million of population is as follows :-
USA – 6411 persons per million of population;
Brazil – 3911 persons per million of population;
Russia – 3564 persons per million of population;
Peru – 6700 persons per million of population;
Pakistan – 600 persons per million of population;
Bangladesh – 513 persons per million of population;
India – 225 persons per million of population;
The World – 997.8 persons per million of population;
Ø The number of COVID-19 related deaths per million of population is as follows :-
USA – 351 persons per million of population;
Brazil – 193 persons per million of population;
Russia – 45 persons per million of population;
Peru – 185 persons per million of population;
Pakistan – 11 persons per million of population;
Bangladesh – 6 persons per million of population;
India – 6 persons per million of population;
The World – 55 persons per million of population;
When we compare the comparable, the unequivocal conclusion is : India has no immediate reason to panic. The ‘Professional Experts’ may be depicting a scenario of gloom and doom, but hardcore data points in the direction of hope and faith.