Patna : If India has to emerge economically stronger after the CORONA Pandemic, the nation needs to safeguard itself against paralysis through excessive analysis. This has happened to India so often in the past.
The World Bank has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate between 1.5 to 2.8 percent during the financial year 2020-21; The IMF has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate of 1.9 percent during the financial year 2020-21; Barclays has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate of 0 percent during the financial year 2020-21; Goldman Sachs has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate of 1.6 percent during the financial year 2020-21; Moody’s has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate of 2.5 percent during the financial year 2020-21; ICRA has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate between -1 percent to 1 percent during the financial year 2020-21; NOMURA has predicted that Indian economy shall grow at a rate of 0.5 percent during the financial year 2020-21.
Now all these are respectable organisations. They have good research teams with access to all kinds of data. Their economists and analysts are people with excellent standing. Yet, with access to same set of data, if all these respectable organisations come up with different predictions about the same economy (India, in this case), there must be something different in the way these organisations analyse the data. Without trying to find fault with any of these, the simple point being made here is that there can be different ways of looking at and analysing the same set of data, which may lead to different conclusions. That is why at one extreme the Indian GDP has been projected to contract by 1 (one) percent, while at the other it has been predicted to grow by 2.8 percent.
With due respect, the predictions of doom and gloom being made with regard to the Indian economy by many respectable organisations fail to take into account the wonderful qualities of resilience, innovation, positivity and tremendous self-confidence which distinguish the India of today from the India of yesterday. That is why the old theories and analyses may not work this time.
Every recession has to end at some point of time or the other. The world cannot continue to remain in a permanent spiral of recession. Ultimately, some country has to lead the world out of it. India, with its vast manpower resource and a never-say-die approach, is the fittest candidate to lead the world out of the present recession.
Experts may doubt it, analysts may question it. But we, as a nation, should not paralyse ourselves with excessive attention to analysis. The time has arrived when we should resolve that we have to do our individual bit in order to ensure that India leads the march out of this CORONA-induced temporary recession.
Recessions are defeated through creation of extra demand. India with its vast manpower and resultant domestic demand is the prime candidate to kick start the global demand chain.
Just look at the order issued by the Secretary, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India on April 15, 2020. The order has been issued by him in his capacity as Chairperson, National Executive Committee in exercise of the powers, conferred under Section 10(2)(i) of the Disaster Management Act, 2005.
After going through the entire order, one is left in no doubt that 85 to 90 percent of the area of the country will resume activities in about 75 to 80 percent of the economic spectrum from April 20, 2020. There may be a difference of opinion with regard to these percentages, yet the actual difference may not be much. We are going to resume economic activities in a big way from April 20, observing social distancing and avoiding unnecessary gatherings at the same time- make no mistake about it!
Moreover, on April 15, 2020,the IMD has also predicted a 100 percent normal monsoon in India during the June-September quarter. This is going to be an additional bonanza.
Indian economy is already on the path of recovery, soon it will gather momentum! Analysts dealing with the Indian economy may have to keep in mind that traditional economic models may not fit the India story this time. Present day India would not permit the assumption of ceteris peribus!