Sudhir Kumar Rakesh, IAS (Retd)
Patna : The predictions of experts about about India’s economy due to COVID-19 pandemic are quite gloomy. Goldman Sachs has predicted that the growth rate of India’s GDP is going to plunge to 1.6% during 2020-21. The World Bank has estimated that the growth rate of India’s GDP is going to be between 1.5% and 2.8% during 2020-21.
It is being said that India is likely to record its worst growth performance since the 1991 liberalisation this fiscal year as the CORONA virus outbreak severely disrupt the economy.
These are the views of experts. However, one would like to politely differ. In my view, India is poised to see one of its best performances during this fiscal year. India is likely to emerge as an economic powerhouse.
Ø Reasons for this belief ?
Ø Many! Just a few are quoted below :
Ø India has great Innovators. These innovators may not have patented all their Products/Processes/Ideas, but we must acknowledge their quick thinking and their ability to come up with great solutions to difficult – looking problems.
Ø Just imagine – while many parts of the world were cribbing about the lack of Masks, we Indians found out that nearly 90% of us had readymade and easily available Masks to protect us. Indian ladies had Sarees, Dupattas, Scarves; Indian males had Gamchhas (thin towels), Dhotis and Handkerchief. Not only that, thousands of groups (Gram Panchayat Level, JIVIKA-Livelihood Groups of women, NGOs, KVIC etc.) started making lakhs of low cost, yet effective, Masks. Within a few days, India no longer feels the helplessness because of lack of Masks.
Ø Most countries have railways. But the way India has innovated to turn many of its rail coaches into Hospitals on Wheels, with facilities for quarantine and separation, is remarkable. This innovation may not have been patented, yet this is a brilliant one!
Ø Look at the villages of India. How they have geared to harvest the standing Kharif crop, maintaining social distancing, is another great innovation. The Indian countryside is quietly at work! You will see the result within a month.
Ø All achievements or innovations need not be as spectacular as sending a Mangalyaan to the Mars. Small changes, according to the demand of the situation, are what majority of the innovations are all about.
Ø Indians are born problem – solvers. Make no mistake about it – we have solved our own problems most of the time. The only thing missing has been the complete documentation of these efforts. Let us do it now.
Ø At the cost of repetition, I would like to share with all what I had said earlier. I repeat.
Ø Planning and not Panic, is the need of the hour. For countries like India and states like Bihar this is a great opportunity. The demographic dividend and the young population – about which we have always talked enthusiastically in the past – is going to be our greatest asset in the immediate future. We must keep in mind that like financial resources, human resource is also a great asset, in fact the human resource is always a far more important asset at such times of crises and at the time of reshaping and rebuilding of the society as well as the economy.
Ø It is very important to keep our self-belief and self-confidence. Since the crisis is one of which no body in the world has any past experience, all nations and societies are going only by their best guesses, aided and assisted by their experts in different fields like Health, Economy, Science, Public Administration and Public Policies. The nations which anticipate correctly, plan intelligently and execute those plans diligently are bound to emerge winners.
Ø It would be better if we also start believing in ourselves and behaving like leaders as a nation. The tendency to keep looking forward to foreign intellectuals and organisations for ideas as also for authentication of our own ideas by them has to be given up. Look at the way India has tackled the Corona crisis so far. Nations which used to be ranked far above India in terms of Health Infrastructure have not been able to face the crisis as efficiently as India has done. It shows that the Health Infrastructure ratings till now have not been done with greater foresight and precision. Or may be, they had they had better infrastructure but did not have as good a foresight as we have in India.